Forbearance plans have expired for some and about to come to an end for others. However, borrowers with a FHA loan had the capability to apply for a new forbearance until September 30, 2021, if you had not previously applied.
In the beginning of the pandemic, there were concerns the housing market would crash and experience a wave of foreclosures like what happened after the housing bubble 15 years ago. This time things are different and not what many expected within the real estate market. What’s different and why won’t it probably happen? Here are four explanations why many homeowners will be keeping the keys to their front door. (Although there is strong evidence to support a strong real estate market, I say probably, because you never know!)
1. There are not as my homeowners needing help
After the last housing crash, about 9.3 million households lost their home to a foreclosure, short sale, or because they simply gave it back to the bank.
As stay-at-home orders were issued early last year, the overwhelming fear was the pandemic would decimate the housing industry in a similar way. Experts projected approximately 30% of all mortgage holders would enter the forbearance program, but only 8.5% signed up for the forbearance packages offered by their lending institution.
2. Most homeowners in forbearance have enough equity to sell their home
Of the 1.86 million homeowners forbearance, 87% have at least 10% equity in their homes. The 10% equity number is important because it enables homeowners to sell their houses and pay the related expenses instead of facing the hit on their credit that a foreclosure or short sale would create.
The remaining 13% might not all have the option to go about a traditional sell or short sale, therefore, if the entire 13% of the 1.86M homes went into foreclosure, that would total 241,800. To give that number context, here are the annual foreclosure numbers of the three years leading up to the pandemic:
- 2017: 314,220
- 2018: 279,040
- 2019: 277,520
The probable number of foreclosures coming out of the forbearance program is nowhere near the number of foreclosures coming out of the housing crash 15 years ago. The number does, however, draw a similar comparison to the three years prior to the pandemic.
3. The current market can handle any listings coming to the market
When foreclosures hit the market in 2008, there was an excess supply of homes for sale. The situation is exactly the opposite today. In 2008, there was a 9-month supply of listings for sale. Currently there is about 3 months of inventory on the market.
As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains when addressing potential foreclosures emerging from the forbearance program:
“Any foreclosure increases will likely be quickly absorbed by the market. It will not lead to any price declines.”
4. Laws were created and new rules set
The White House released a fact sheet explaining how homeowners with government-backed mortgages will be given further options to enable them to keep their homes when exiting forbearance. Here are two examples mentioned in the release:
- “For homeowners who can resume their pre-pandemic monthly mortgage payment and where agencies have the authority, agencies will continue requiring mortgage servicers to offer options that allow borrowers to move missed payments to the end of the mortgage at no additional cost to the borrower.”
- “The new steps the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), Department of Agriculture (USDA), and Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) are announcing will aim to provide homeowners with a roughly 25% reduction in borrowers’ monthly principal and interest (P&I) payments to ensure they can afford to remain in their homes and build equity long-term. This brings options for homeowners with mortgages backed by HUD, USDA, and VA closer in alignment with options for homeowners with mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.”